U.S. Businesses May Face Credit Risks From Chinese Currency Manipulation
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U.S. Businesses May Face Credit Risks From Chinese Currency Manipulation

Recent news reports have highlighted the pressure on China to allow the yuan to appreciate — and stirred the debate over whether U.S. consumers and businesses would benefit from the Chinese currency trading in the foreign exchange market.

"China adopting a floating currency could lead to some potential risk issues," cautioned Michael Kornblau, Marsh U.S. Trade Credit Practice Leader.

"A significant boost in Chinese currency would increase the price of China's exported goods and may lead to lower export levels — which may strain the viability of existing Chinese exporters' relationships with U.S. suppliers," explained Kornblau. "Further, some of China's immediate competitor countries would gain more market share. Some of these countries (e.g. Vietnam, Cambodia, various Latin American countries) may be entirely new markets for U.S. importers, with a different risk profile than their former Chinese exporters possessed."

Kornblau added, "The pressure could result in an environment with increased non-payment risk. Credit insurance may provide risk transfer on these supply contracts."

The Peterson Institute estimates the yuan is undervalued by up to 40%.


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